What's New Overseas

There was a lot of activity overseas after the close yesterday.
The first thing is that Apple iOS 18.1 Beta version of the online, Apple Intelligence officially meet with the fruit powder.
Originally quite a good thing, suddenly someone found: Apple big model training with Google TPU clusters, NVIDIA content is surprisingly zero.
A stone stirred up a thousand waves. NVIDIA plunged 7% that night.
What are the facts?
According to my understanding, Apple first dug an AI team from the Google side, but because you can't buy NV's card, you have no choice but to use Google's TPUs. but after that, it was found that the 10,000 pieces of TPUs were not enough at all, so it bought another 2W H servers.
So it's not that Apple doesn't want to use NVIDIA's GPUs, it's because it can't buy them. And it did add a bill for Nvidia cards later.
So when the market figured this out, NVIDIA jumped over 5% after hours.
Take a step back, even if the big manufacturers are indeed looking for alternatives to Nvidia, but the demand for suppliers of optical modules, pcb, copper cable, etc. has not changed much.
For example, a leading domestic optical module, but also Google's core suppliers.
It's like the battery of Ningde Times, no matter who is powerful in your OEM, you have to buy my battery anyway.

The second thing is that Microsoft released its second quarter earnings report.
The quarter realized revenue of $84.74 billion, +14% year-on-year, higher than the consensus estimate.
24Q2 net income of $23.62 billion, +28.6% year-over-year, beat consensus estimates.
However, smart cloud revenue growth slowed to less than 20%, below expectations. In particular, Azure and other cloud services revenue slowed after two consecutive quarters of accelerating growth, with growth below 30% for the first time in nearly three quarters.
So, Microsoft's shares fell nearly 3% after hours.
But A-share investors were more concerned about Microsoft's capital spending.
Microsoft's capital expenditures (excluding leases) amounted to $19 billion in the quarter, sharply exceeding the Bloomberg consensus analysts' estimate of $15 billion, including $13.9 billion excluding leases. This is a significant increase from the $10.95 billion spent in the first quarter.
Additionally the company expects long-term capital expenditures to continue to rise sequentially and for capital expenditures to continue to rise sequentially in the next quarter.
As Google's CEO said, it is currently in the early stages of a transformative field where the risk of underinvestment is much higher than overinvestment.

In addition, AMD's data center business exceeded expectations and jumped nearly 5% after hours.
Entering q3, optical modules, whether 1.6t next-generation products, or future orders will become clearer, and the industry chain has recently shown signs of upward adjustment of q4 demand.
In summary, today's arithmetic plate may usher in a rebound.

Another key point is the zzj meeting that just ended.
The urgency of stabilizing growth was further clarified.
The meeting's evaluation of the external environment, from "complexity, severity, uncertainty increased significantly" to "increased adverse effects".
So the task of stabilizing growth is very urgent.
"The second half of the reform, development and stability of the task is very heavy ...... unswervingly complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks." "Macro policy should continue to exert force, more force."
Following last week's OMO/LPR/MLF interest rate cuts and the arrangement of 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal and trade-in, monetary policy is expected to continue to relax, while fiscal policy will further accelerate the landing.

Specific catches include.
1, promotion fee
"To boost consumption as the focus of expanding domestic demand, the focus of economic policy should be more shifted to benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption, to increase residents' income through multiple channels, enhance the consumption ability and willingness of middle and low-income groups, to service consumption as an important hand of consumption expansion and upgrading, and to support the cultural and tourism, old age care, childcare, housekeeping and other consumption."

2, anti-involvement
"Strengthen industry self-regulation, to prevent "involutional" vicious competition. Strengthen the market mechanism of survival of the fittest, and smooth the exit channels of backward and inefficient production capacity."

3, support the acquisition of stock of commercial housing
"To implement the new policy to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, adhere to the digestion of stock and optimize the combination of incremental, and actively support the acquisition of the stock of commercial housing as a guaranteed housing, and further do a good job to ensure the delivery of housing to accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development."
It is expected that a series of supporting policies will be introduced in the future, and stabilizing growth is likely to become the focus of trading in A shares in the next 1 month.

At present, the U.S. interest rate cut is expected to be very strong, and the domestic stable growth is expected to be very strong. Next, the probability of A shares will be stronger.